Your club’s Premier League omens
Has any team won the Premier League from Manchester United’s position? Can Liverpool keep conceding goals and take the title? And will Sunderland pull off a Premier League first if they stay up? We’ve looked back at Premier League tables over the last 24 years to see how this year’s standings after 11 games compare to previous seasons. Read on to see what the omens are for your club… It’s bad news for Manchester United, who are currently eighth in the league with 18 points. They haven’t won any of their 13 Premier League titles with fewer than 19 points at week 11. Meanwhile, Liverpool are currently top of the league with 26 points. The Reds have only ever been top of the Premier League at week 11 once before in 2002/03, but finished that season in fifth after going on an 11-game winless streak during this period that year. There are positive omens for Arsenal, though, who have been crowned Premier League champions three times. In two of those seasons the Gunners had fewer points than their current 24 (19 in 2001/02 and 23 in 1997/98). Manchester City have slipped to third in the league with 24 points from 11 games, seven points shy of their tally at the same stage during their title-winning season in 2011/12 – but five more than 2013/14, when they won their last Premier League crown. Bournemouth and Leicester City have 12 points from 11 games, which means a repeat fairytale at the King Power, or a new one at Dean Court, is extremely unlikely. The biggest table climb from week 11 to a league title was Manchester City from eighth place to champions in 2013/14. Everton are equal on points with Manchester United, ahead on goal difference. But top-four finishes for both teams seem unlikely, with the average team on 18 points finishing around ninth place. Burnley and Watford fans will be relieved to know of the 277 teams to have had 14 points or more after 11 games, only seven of them have ended up being relegated, which translates to a slim two per cent chance of an immediate return to the Championship for both clubs. Stoke and West Brom are both on 13 points, which history suggests gives a ceiling season finish of sixth, previously achieved by Aston Villa (2003/04), Everton (1995/96) and Liverpool (1992/93). Sunderland are currently stranded at the bottom of the league on five points, while Swansea sit in 19th place with the same results (W1, D2, L8) and points but a superior goal difference. However, there is hope for supporters of the Black Cats and Swans: Crystal Palace only had four points at this stage in 2013 but ended the season 11th in the league. Liverpool have won eight games this season – only eight eventual Premier League champions have had more at this stage. In contrast, Manchester United had just five wins after 11 games in 1992/93, 1996/97 and 2002/03 before going on to win the title. Arsenal also only had five wins at week 11 in 2001/02 before lifting the trophy. Tottenham are the only unbeaten side in the Premier League this season – but their record has been tarnished with six draws. No team has ever drawn six or more games in their first 11 and ended up winning the league. Liverpool matched Tottenham’s W5, D6, L0 start to the season in 2007/08 and Nottingham Forest did the same in 1995/96, with the teams finishing fourth and ninth, respectively. However, Manchester United had drawn five games at this stage in 2010/11 and went on to win the league, as did Arsenal in 1997/98. West Ham have lost six games this season after a dismal start to life at the London Stadium, as have Capital neighbours Crystal Palace. But that doesn’t mean a top-half finish is out of the picture. Fellow Londoners Chelsea had an identical set of results at this stage last season (W3, D2, L6). They sacked Jose Mourinho five games later and ended the season in 10th. Sunderland and Swansea have only won one game this season. In total, 21 teams have only recorded one victory by week 11, of which only Southampton in 1993/94 escaped relegation with an identical set of results as the Black Cats and Swans. Liverpool have scored 30 goals this season, which has only been surpassed on four occasions: Manchester United in 2000/01 (31 goals), Arsenal in 2004/05 (31) and 2009/10 (36), and Manchester City in 2011/12 (39). The good omen for Liverpool is that both Manchester clubs went on to win the league, while Arsenal only managed a second and third-place finish, respectively. Sunderland’s meagre goal tally of nine this season is not unusual throughout Premier League history, with 84 clubs recording nine goals or fewer at week 11 since 1992. Manchester City hold the record for fewest goals scored at week 11, having only notched three goals in 1995 before being relegated. Despite topping the league and scoring more goals than any other club, Liverpool’s title hopes could be dented by their defensive record. The Reds have now conceded 14 goals - only four clubs have won the league after conceding that number or more at week 11. In contrast, Tottenham have only conceded six goals this season, a record only matched or surpassed by 20 teams over the last 24 years. However, the average league-ending position for those teams was fourth. At the other end of the table, Hull City will be concerned at the number of goals they have leaked after a positive start to life back in the Premier League. The Tigers have now conceded 24 goals, a tally only matched or surpassed by 19 other teams in history – of which nine were relegated. In terms of goal difference, there is more misery for the league’s current bottom three, Sunderland, Swansea and Hull. Of the 41 teams that have registered -11 goals or fewer, only 18 have avoided relegation that season. Goal difference has not tended to have considerable bearing on the eventual champions, with 16 out of the previous 24 champions recording a lower goal difference at week 11 than Liverpool’s current +16 and Chelsea’s +17. At this stage last season, Leicester were third in the league and had a slender goal difference of just +4 – the lowest ever recorded by eventual champions. This season, the Foxes have the worst ever record for defending champions with a -5 goal difference. Chelsea have the best goal difference this season with +17, the 13th-highest ever recorded at this stage of the season. The Blues will be pleased to know that the last time they had a +17 goal difference, they won the league in 2014/15. Manchester United recorded a staggering +29 goal difference after 11 games during their title-winning 2011/12 season. However, this season they have only managed +3 – and no team has ever won the league with fewer than +4. At the other end of the scale, Derby (2007/08), Sheffield Wednesday (1999/00) and Barnsley (1997/98) all recorded an all-time low of -19 at 11 weeks – all three clubs were ultimately relegated. So Liverpool need to curtail their lacklustre record at the back to help secure their first Premier League title, while Manchester City’s lull doesn’t spell doom for Pep Guardiola’s side if their 2013/14 campaign is anything to go by. The title appears to be beyond Manchester United, unless Jose Mourinho can inspire a record comeback chase for points. In contrast, Chelsea’s current goal difference is identical to their title-winning season in 2013/14 which could suggest a return to yesteryear under new boss Antonio Conte. Arsenal have won two of their titles with fewer points at week 11 than they have now, while Spurs’ tendency to draw games could suggest another season behind their north London rivals. The season looks bleak for the league’s current bottom three, as 24 years of Premier League history suggests the odds are against Sunderland, Swansea and Hull to escape relegation. Upgrade to Sky Sports now to watch Man Utd v Arsenal this Saturday and get the first six months half price!
See all stories on this topic